It Worked In The 80's? - #1 April & October Flat - with Andrew Mount

And here are the figures, Andrew Mount writes......

My good mate Simon Nott has sent me a load of newspaper cuttings from The Weekender and other publications dating back to the 1980s and has asked me to run my eye over the featured systems to see if they are still relevant today. The first one I want to discuss is a ‘Systems Study by Formulator’ piece from September 1985. There’s no date on it but on the reverse side of the paper there’s a review of the action from Newbury with the following comment about a two-year-old newcomer - “SHARASTANI turned in an eyecatching performance and looks sure to make a name for himself in due course. This Nijinsky colt was in a very unpromising position two furlongs from home and had to weave his way through, but once clear found a fine burst of acceleration and only just failed to catch My Ton Ton. It will take a very smart performer to beat him next time”. Wise words indeed, as he won the Sandown Classic Trial on his next outing (his three-year-old debut), upset Dancing Brave in the Derby and went on to land the Irish Derby by eight lengths. The official going for the two jumps meetings covered later in the piece were firm (Warwick) and good to firm (Bangor) which gives another clue as to how old the article is.

Back to the systems. The author suggests that it is wise to stop betting on the Flat at the end of September (remember, this is prior to the introduction of all-weather racing in Britain), citing the following reasons…

Variable weather conditions (welcome to Britain)

Horses beating each other win with monotonous regularity (still favoured by some of the lazier racing pundits, who frequently spout wisdom such as “they take it in turns to beat each other” rather than putting in the hours with the formbook)

Trainers looking for that final fling to earn their winter corn (looks like the ‘Christmas money for the yard’ type of gamble used to arrive earlier for Flat trainers in the mid-80s)

Large fields (perhaps not such a problem nowadays)

Form upsets everywhere

The author goes on to say “Statistically, April and October are by far the worst months for punters who like to bet on the ‘good things’. Odd-on favourites have a very poor record indeed during these months. He (I assume it’s a he) doesn’t provide any data to back this up but I can use the Proform Racing software to see how they fare in the modern era…

A quick look at last year’s Flat turf runners in Britain who returned at odds-on (Starting Price not Betfair SP) produced the following results….

…259 winners from 418 bets (61.96% strike-rate) and a small profit (+£3.14) at SP. This could be a better option that stocks and shares while Trump is President but let’s split those results by month…

…the results for April and October are poor, as suggested in the article.

Had we only bet odds-on runners in turf Flat races in Britain last year in the months of May, June, July and August we’d have achieved the following results…

…195 winners from 293 bets (66.55% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.51 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners (‘EX Wins’ in the table above) judged on their prices was 172.02 giving an actual over expected score (A/E) of 1.13 (anything over 1.0 is good).

Since 2021, backing all odds-on Flat turf favs in Britain during April and October would have found 157 winners from 285 bets (55.09%) for a loss of £29.56 to a £1 level stake at SP (-10.37% on turnover). Laying the same horses at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £13.20 (+4.63%) after 2% commission.

The figures for Ireland – again, Flat turf odds-on favs in April & October since 2021 – were even worse…

…laying these at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £19.67 (+20.28% on turnover) after 2% comm.

Turns out the bloke in the bookies who said “never bet odds-on” might have had a point, certainly when it comes to Flat turf runners in April and October!

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